2012 OSCAR NOMINATIONS: Reevaluation of Picture and Director categories



<!–[if !mso]>st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } <![endif]–>

In previous entries I have gone over my predictions for the 2012 Academy Award nominations for Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Screenplay (both original and adaptation) and Director.  A lot has happened since then, and it’s time to start reevaluating my predictions.  Most of them I believe still hold.  But there are some instances where I have to eat crow a bit.  There are still some issues due to a few movies having not opened or having only recently opened, so it’s still a bit difficult to gauge a general feeling toward those few. 
There are also a couple of issues to discuss before proceeding.  One of the problems now is that once you have previously made a list as to what the top five are going to be (or more when it comes to Picture), you now are not just deciding what will be nominated; you have to take the list you made and decide what name to remove.  This is a sometimes much more difficult (if not downright painful) action to take.
Also, even though a number of films haven’t opened or have just recently opened, there have been screenings for the films, as well as screeners, and appearances at film festivals, awards and other nominations, etc.  This can, but not always, mean that you can gauge a general feeling toward a film.
At any rate, here I go:
Best Picture
My previous predictions were:
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Master
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Django Unchained
Silver Linings Playbook
Arbitrage
Moonrise Kingdom
Amour
As runner ups Life of Pi, Flight, Zero Dark Thirty, The Hobbit
I think it’s obvious right now, I made a couple of boo-boos.  Arbitrage is out, as if Flight, Zero Dark Thirty is in, and not just in, but will probably win (my only defense is that ZDT at the time I made my list, was an incredibly unknown quantity). 
In addition, Amour is still a possibility, but will probably be passed over since all voters are going to assume it is going to win in the Best Foreign Language category. 
I still have a few qualms about Les Miserables, only because it hasn’t opened yet and it is getting some terrible reviews and a mixed reaction by the people who have seen it.  It’s probably a sure thing, but if any movie is going to crash and burn before the voting closes, it’s going to be this one.  It’s somewhat the same on Django Unchained, but the reactions so far have been much stronger and better than for Les Miserables.
The two main questionable films are The Master and Moonrise Kingdom.  The Academy voting is set up now such that movies that have a strong following (i.e., movies that will get more votes for first place rather than movies that get more overall votes, but only in the middle range) will have a chance.  The Master is loved by the critics and by those who really loved it; it is also hated or left feelings of indifference in even more of the audience.  The intensity of the love, though, if only by a small number, fits perfectly with the Oscar voting system; so it could sneak in.
Moonrise Kingdom is different.  People liked it, but I don’t think with the passion of The Master.  And with Beasts of the Southern Wild having a bigger impact on the voters, it may be left out.
I will now put a movie on the list that I think most people are not even thinking about.  I strongly suspect that The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel will make the list.  It is one of those movies that people seem to really love, and by the attention it is now getting from various awards groups, I think it may be the real sleeper of the noms.
 Finally, there is Life of Pi.  As we get closer to the nominations, I may change my mind and include this.  The feeling I’m getting right now is that critics and Oscar pundits would like to see it nominated so much, that they keep pushing it on their lists.  But I’m not convinced that the audience and voters are agreeing.  But that may change.  But then, which one would I remove?
So in reevaluating, I will list them in the order I think their chances are.
Zero Dark Thirty to win
Lincoln
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
The Master
That’s nine.  If there is a tenth spot, I’ll go for Moonrise Kingdom or Amour with also a chance for Life of Pi.
Best Director
Since Best Picture and Best Director usually go hand in hand (with often only one, more rarely two, differences), I’ll quickly firm this category up.  
My previous predictions:
Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty to win. 
Steven Spielberg for Lincoln. 
Ben Affleck for Argo. 
Tom Hooper for Les Miserables. 
David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook. 
Runners up: Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master; Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild; Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained; Peter Jackson for The Hobbit; Michael Haneke for Amour; Wes Anderson for Moonrise Kingdom; Ang Lee for Life of Pi.
You will see one oddity.  I made this list so long after my predictions for Best Picture, I had seen the light and now had Bigelow to win.  I still think she will.  In addition, I can’t imagine Spielberg and Affleck not being nominated. 
But after Bigelow, Spielberg and Affleck, that leaves two spots.  My issue with Hooper is as I’ve said before: if any movie is going to crash and burn before the nominations come out, it will be Les Miserables.  But it seems like it has a firm enough foothold so far.
If Russell doesn’t make it, it will probably be because you can only have five nominations, so someone has to go.  But who will it be?  And I have to be honest, I don’t know.  I suspect that Zeitlin will be overlooked because the movie is too small and there’s too much competition.  The director will have to go the “it’s an honor just to be nominated” route, even if that nomination is not for him, but for picture, actress and screenplay.
Jackson is out for The Hobbit.  It was well received, but not that well and a lot of people are having issues with the 3D process.  Wes Anderson I think is out because if Zeitlin isn’t going to make it, Anderson has even less of a chance.  At this time, I’m also putting Lee out for the same reason as before; I can’t tell if the enthusiasm for him is being driven by certain people wanting it, or because there is an actual desire by voters to nominate him.
That leaves three possible upsets for Russell: Anderson, Tarantino and Haneke.  Anderson has a better chance with directors than general voters.  Tarantino is getting great buzz.  Haneke’s main issue is that his film won’t get a nomination since most people will assume Amour will get the Best Foreign Film award. 
But I am going to go out on a limb and go for Haneke.  It has great buzz and has more recently opened, whereas The Master has been gone from the screens for some time.  I can’t give a logical reason for Haneke over Tarantino, but I’m just going to be contrary and go for something unorthodox here.
So my predictions are, in order of their likelihood:
Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty to win. 
Steven Spielberg for Lincoln. 
Ben Affleck for Argo. 
Tom Hooper for Les Miserables. 
Michael Haneke for Amour
Runners up: David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook; Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained; and Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master.
Next up: Actors.

So tell me what you think.

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s