Predictions for 2012 Oscar nominations



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These are now my predictions for the Oscar nominations in the top eight categories.  The problem at this point is no longer what is going to be nominated, but what is not going to be nominated.  Most of the nominations in each category are obvious.  It’s those last couple that are the most painful to decide because to put one in, means you have to take one out.
Best Picture
I’m going to go for nine:
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Skyall
Zero Dark Thirty
I believe The Master is going to be almost totally out of consideration in almost every category.  Amour will quite possibly not be nominated here because all the voters will assume not just that it will be nominated for Best Foreign Language Film, but will win.  Moonrise Kingdom still has a possibility, but I just don’t think it’s going to make it.  Life of Pi I could never get a confident handle on and have finally decided to take it off and replace it with Skyfall which seems to have some last minute surge.  I also still suspect that Best Exotic Marigold Hotel may make it.
Best Director
This often goes hand in hand with the pictures, but I am going to go out on a limb here for one nomination:
Ben Affleck – Argo
Katherine Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
Michael Haneke – Amour
Tom Hooper – Les Miserables
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
I think Haneke could get in without a picture nomination because of the reasons he won’t get a picture nomination.  Sorry Tarantino and Russell, but not everyone can make it.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day Lewis – Lincoln
John Hawkes – The Sessions
Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
Denzel Washington – Flight
I think River Phoenix will be left out because The Master just never caught on with the voters.  Cooper is in because of the support for the movie and because the Weinsteins are behind him. 
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Theory
Marion Cotillard – Ruse & Bone
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Right now, I think only Naomi Watts can push someone out, but I don’t know if that would be Cotillard, Wallis or Riva.  But the question is, did The Impossible get to the voters too late and was Watt’s performance so overwhelming that she can get in.
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin – Argo
Robert de Niro – Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained
Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
Matthew McConaughey – Magic Mike
The big wild card here is Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master.  But who will he get rid of ?  McConaughey or DiCaprio?
Best Supporting Actress
Ann Dowd – Compliance
Sally Field – Lincoln
Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Maggie Smith – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Amy Adams and Jacki Weaver are the wild cards here, but I think Ann Dowd is gong to get in (or maybe that’s just so much wish fulfillment on my part)
Best Original Screenplay
Mark Boal – Zero Dark Thirty
Michael Hanake – Amour
Rian Johnson – Looper
Olivier Nakache and Eric Toledano – The Intouchables
Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained
The wild cards here are Seven Psychopaths and Rust and  Bone, but I’ve heard whispers of The Intouchables and Looper getting in.  I hope that Seven Psychopaths gets in. 
Best Adapted Screenplay

Tony Kushner – Lincoln
Ol Parker – Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook
Chris Terrio – Argo
Benh Zeitlein and Lucy Alibar – Beasts of the Southern Wild
I’m going out on a limb for Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, but could see Les Miserables getting in and if not, then Perks of Being a Wild Flower, Life of Pi and The Sessions.

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So that’s it.  We’ll find out Thursday morning how many I got right.
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