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It’s getting to be that time for the Oscars to reveal their nominees for 2016. Every year, I predict who will make that list in the top categories, and this year I’ll also do Animation and Foreign Language films as well.
Generally I don’t do too badly. On average, I get one wrong per category. I don’t know how well I’ll do this year. Most of the nominees are certain, but there are quite a few wildcards this year.
Be sure and let me know what you think.
So to begin:
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester By The Sea
Expected to win: La La Land
Shouldn’t be there: Quite a few, but I’ll ruffle feathers by saying La La Land
I’m going out on a limb by nominating Deadpool. But after a PGA nomination and a DGA nomination for first film, I think it may make it. So since I’m only going to predict nine films, I removed Hidden Figures, mainly because it’s the most recently released of the films. So if Deadpool doesn’t make it, then Hidden Figures very well might.
Out of left field nom: Elle might get in there.
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Garth Davis – Lion
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester By The Sea
Denis Villeneuve – Arrival
Expected to win: Damien Chazelle
Shouldn’t be there: Davis
All but Davis are generally considered to be shoe ins. Garth got two DGA nominations (best director, best first feature) and it’s gotten a PGA nomination, so I’ll go with that. Mel Gibson’s a possibility with Hacksaw Ridge, and Martin Scorsese for Silence (though that film bombed big time and is more of a critics’ film; at the same time the Director’s category can be very quirky), but my guess is that if Garth doesn’t get in, Densel Washington will for Fences.
Out of left field nom: perhaps Paul Verhoeven
Casey Affleck – Manchester By The Sea
Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling – La La Land
Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
Denzil Washington – Fences
Expected to win: Oh, pulease, Casey Affleck, of course
Shouldn’t be there: Garfield
All but Mortensen seem to be shoe ins. Mortensen rose to the top by virtue of a grass roots campaign, which almost never works, but may very well here.
If Mortensen doesn’t make it, then my money is on Joel Edgerton for Loving.
I have no out of left field pick for this. The closest is Jake Gyllenhaal who got a BAFTA nomination for Nocturnal Animals.
Amy Adams – Arrival
Annette Bening – 20th Century Women
Isabelle Huppert – Elle
Natalie Portman – Jackie
Emma Stone – La La Land
Expected to win: Originally it was between Portman and Stone, then Stone moved out in front. However, for some reason, after the Golden Globe win, I think Huppert might get it.
Shouldn’t be there: Adams
There is a danger that Meryl Streep will get in for Florence Foster Jenkins, which, IMHO, would be disgraceful. If so, she could take out either Adams or Bening. What I’m praying for is Adams is out and Ruth Negga gets in for Loving and no Streep.
I also have no out of left field pick for this. The closest would be Emily Blunt, perhaps, for The Girl on the Train. She received a Golden Globe and BAFTA nomination.
Viola Davis – Fences
Naomie Harris – Moonlight
Nicole Kidman – Lion
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams – Manchester By The Sea
Expected to win: Another oh, pulease, Viola Davis, of course
Shouldn’t be there: Kidman
I expect this is pretty much going to be it.
I also don’t see a possible out of left field nom, with Greta Gerwig for 20th Century Women the closest.
Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel – Lion
Aaron Taylor-Johnson – Nocturnal Animals
Expected to win: In spite of the Golden Globes throwing everyone for a loop by awarding their prize to Taylor-Johnson, Ali is still expected to win.
Shouldn’t be there: Patel
Originally, Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals was a shoe in for a nomination. But he didn’t get a Golden Globe or a BAFTA nomination. Aaron Taylor-Johnson did, so I’m going with him. I hope I’m wrong. Actually, I have no issue with a Taylor-Johnson nomination. What I do want is a Shannon one, but I’m not sure who he will knock out (hopefully Patel). And don’t count out Hugh Grant (shudder).
I don’t really see an out of left field nomination. The closest I can get to one is Shannon and Taylor-Johnson both getting one.
Expected to win: Moonlight
Shouldn’t be there: Almost all except for Moonlight
Screenplay categories are my weakest. It’s very hard to get a strong pulse. But this seems to be the expected list. Hidden Figures is high on lists, though.
There are quite a few out of left field possibilities including Love and Friendship, Deadpool and Elle.
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester By the Sea
Expected to win: Manchester by the Sea (in spite of the Golden Globe going to La La Land)
Shouldn’t be there: La La Land
Zootopia is probably my most uncertain choice. There is talk of Jackie, 20th Century Women or Captain Fantastic.
Out of left field nomination: I just don’t see any.
Kubo and the Two Strings
My Life as a Zucchini
Expected to win: Zootopia
Shouldn’t be there: The list is fine
It’s quite possible that The Red Turtle will get in over Finding Dory or My Life as a Zucchini
Out of left field nomination: Sausage Party (Hey, it could happen)
Land of Mine
A Man Called Ove
My Life as a Zucchini
Expected to win: Toni Erdmann
Shouldn’t be there: I haven’t seen all the possible nominees, so I won’t say
This should be the list, but you never know with these tricky foreign language voters
Out of left field nomination: It doesn’t real apply here since there are now only nine nominations.
So we’ll find out on Tuesday, January 24th how well I did.
Again, let me know what you think.