My 2016 Oscar Nominations Prediction


top-50-screenwriting-blogsFor questions: hcasner@aol.com
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oscarIt’s getting to be that time for the Oscars to reveal their nominees for 2016. Every year, I predict who will make that list in the top categories, and this year I’ll also do Animation and Foreign Language films as well.
Generally I don’t do too badly. On average, I get one wrong per category. I don’t know how well I’ll do this year. Most of the nominees are certain, but there are quite a few wildcards this year.
Be sure and let me know what you think.

 

So to begin:

 

how7Best Picture

Arrival

Deadpool

Fences

Hacksaw Ridge

Hell or High Water

La La Land

Lion

Manchester By The Sea

Moonlight

Expected to win: La La Land

Shouldn’t be there: Quite a few, but I’ll ruffle feathers by saying La La Land

I’m going out on a limb by nominating Deadpool. But after a PGA nomination and a DGA nomination for first film, I think it may make it. So since I’m only going to predict nine films, I removed Hidden Figures, mainly because it’s the most recently released of the films. So if Deadpool doesn’t make it, then Hidden Figures very well might.

Out of left field nom: Elle might get in there.

 

how9Best Director

Damien Chazelle – La La Land

Garth Davis – Lion

Barry Jenkins – Moonlight

Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester By The Sea

Denis Villeneuve – Arrival

Expected to win: Damien Chazelle

Shouldn’t be there: Davis

All but Davis are generally considered to be shoe ins. Garth got two DGA nominations (best director, best first feature) and it’s gotten a PGA nomination, so I’ll go with that. Mel Gibson’s a possibility with Hacksaw Ridge, and Martin Scorsese for Silence (though that film bombed big time and is more of a critics’ film; at the same time the Director’s category can be very quirky), but my guess is that if Garth doesn’t get in, Densel Washington will for Fences.

Out of left field nom: perhaps Paul Verhoeven

 

how4Best Actor

Casey Affleck – Manchester By The Sea

Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge

Ryan Gosling – La La Land

Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic

Denzil Washington – Fences

Expected to win: Oh, pulease, Casey Affleck, of course

Shouldn’t be there: Garfield

All but Mortensen seem to be shoe ins. Mortensen rose to the top by virtue of a grass roots campaign, which almost never works, but may very well here.

If Mortensen doesn’t make it, then my money is on Joel Edgerton for Loving.

I have no out of left field pick for this. The closest is Jake Gyllenhaal who got a BAFTA nomination for Nocturnal Animals.

 

how5Best Actress

Amy Adams – Arrival

Annette Bening – 20th Century Women

Isabelle Huppert – Elle

Natalie Portman – Jackie

Emma Stone – La La Land

Expected to win: Originally it was between Portman and Stone, then Stone moved out in front. However, for some reason, after the Golden Globe win, I think Huppert might get it.

Shouldn’t be there: Adams

There is a danger that Meryl Streep will get in for Florence Foster Jenkins, which, IMHO, would be disgraceful. If so, she could take out either Adams or Bening. What I’m praying for is Adams is out and Ruth Negga gets in for Loving and no Streep.

I also have no out of left field pick for this. The closest would be Emily Blunt, perhaps, for The Girl on the Train. She received a Golden Globe and BAFTA nomination.

 

how1Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis – Fences

Naomie Harris – Moonlight

Nicole Kidman – Lion

Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures

Michelle Williams – Manchester By The Sea

Expected to win: Another oh, pulease, Viola Davis, of course

Shouldn’t be there: Kidman

I expect this is pretty much going to be it.

I also don’t see a possible out of left field nom, with Greta Gerwig for 20th Century Women the closest.

 

how2Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali – Moonlight

Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water

Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea

Dev Patel – Lion

Aaron Taylor-Johnson – Nocturnal Animals

Expected to win: In spite of the Golden Globes throwing everyone for a loop by awarding their prize to Taylor-Johnson, Ali is still expected to win.

Shouldn’t be there: Patel

Originally, Michael Shannon for Nocturnal Animals was a shoe in for a nomination. But he didn’t get a Golden Globe or a BAFTA nomination. Aaron Taylor-Johnson did, so I’m going with him. I hope I’m wrong. Actually, I have no issue with a Taylor-Johnson nomination. What I do want is a Shannon one, but I’m not sure who he will knock out (hopefully Patel). And don’t count out Hugh Grant (shudder).

I don’t really see an out of left field nomination. The closest I can get to one is Shannon and Taylor-Johnson both getting one.

 

how6Best Adapted Screenplay

Arrival

Fences

Lion

Moonlight

Nocturnal Animals

Expected to win: Moonlight

Shouldn’t be there: Almost all except for Moonlight

Screenplay categories are my weakest. It’s very hard to get a strong pulse. But this seems to be the expected list. Hidden Figures is high on lists, though.

There are quite a few out of left field possibilities including Love and Friendship, Deadpool and Elle.

 

how4Best Original Screenplay

Hell or High Water

La La Land

The Lobster

Manchester By the Sea

Zootopia

Expected to win: Manchester by the Sea (in spite of the Golden Globe going to La La Land)

Shouldn’t be there: La La Land

Zootopia is probably my most uncertain choice. There is talk of Jackie, 20th Century Women or Captain Fantastic.

Out of left field nomination: I just don’t see any.

 

how3Best Animated Film:

Finding Dory

Kubo and the Two Strings

Moana

My Life as a Zucchini

Zootopia

Expected to win: Zootopia

Shouldn’t be there: The list is fine

It’s quite possible that The Red Turtle will get in over Finding Dory or My Life as a Zucchini

Out of left field nomination: Sausage Party (Hey, it could happen)

 

how9Best Foreign Language Film:

Toni Erdmann

Land of Mine

A Man Called Ove

My Life as a Zucchini

The Salesman

Expected to win: Toni Erdmann

Shouldn’t be there: I haven’t seen all the possible nominees, so I won’t say

This should be the list, but you never know with these tricky foreign language voters

Out of left field nomination: It doesn’t real apply here since there are now only nine nominations.

 

So we’ll find out on Tuesday, January 24th how well I did.

Again, let me know what you think.

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