Predictions for 2012 Oscar nominations



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These are now my predictions for the Oscar nominations in the top eight categories.  The problem at this point is no longer what is going to be nominated, but what is not going to be nominated.  Most of the nominations in each category are obvious.  It’s those last couple that are the most painful to decide because to put one in, means you have to take one out.
Best Picture
I’m going to go for nine:
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Skyall
Zero Dark Thirty
I believe The Master is going to be almost totally out of consideration in almost every category.  Amour will quite possibly not be nominated here because all the voters will assume not just that it will be nominated for Best Foreign Language Film, but will win.  Moonrise Kingdom still has a possibility, but I just don’t think it’s going to make it.  Life of Pi I could never get a confident handle on and have finally decided to take it off and replace it with Skyfall which seems to have some last minute surge.  I also still suspect that Best Exotic Marigold Hotel may make it.
Best Director
This often goes hand in hand with the pictures, but I am going to go out on a limb here for one nomination:
Ben Affleck – Argo
Katherine Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
Michael Haneke – Amour
Tom Hooper – Les Miserables
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
I think Haneke could get in without a picture nomination because of the reasons he won’t get a picture nomination.  Sorry Tarantino and Russell, but not everyone can make it.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper – Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day Lewis – Lincoln
John Hawkes – The Sessions
Hugh Jackman – Les Miserables
Denzel Washington – Flight
I think River Phoenix will be left out because The Master just never caught on with the voters.  Cooper is in because of the support for the movie and because the Weinsteins are behind him. 
Best Actress
Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Theory
Marion Cotillard – Ruse & Bone
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Emmanuelle Riva – Amour
Quvenzhane Wallis – Beasts of the Southern Wild
Right now, I think only Naomi Watts can push someone out, but I don’t know if that would be Cotillard, Wallis or Riva.  But the question is, did The Impossible get to the voters too late and was Watt’s performance so overwhelming that she can get in.
Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin – Argo
Robert de Niro – Silver Linings Playbook
Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained
Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
Matthew McConaughey – Magic Mike
The big wild card here is Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master.  But who will he get rid of ?  McConaughey or DiCaprio?
Best Supporting Actress
Ann Dowd – Compliance
Sally Field – Lincoln
Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Maggie Smith – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Amy Adams and Jacki Weaver are the wild cards here, but I think Ann Dowd is gong to get in (or maybe that’s just so much wish fulfillment on my part)
Best Original Screenplay
Mark Boal – Zero Dark Thirty
Michael Hanake – Amour
Rian Johnson – Looper
Olivier Nakache and Eric Toledano – The Intouchables
Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained
The wild cards here are Seven Psychopaths and Rust and  Bone, but I’ve heard whispers of The Intouchables and Looper getting in.  I hope that Seven Psychopaths gets in. 
Best Adapted Screenplay

Tony Kushner – Lincoln
Ol Parker – Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook
Chris Terrio – Argo
Benh Zeitlein and Lucy Alibar – Beasts of the Southern Wild
I’m going out on a limb for Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, but could see Les Miserables getting in and if not, then Perks of Being a Wild Flower, Life of Pi and The Sessions.

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So that’s it.  We’ll find out Thursday morning how many I got right.

OSCARS 2012: BEST ACTOR ADDENDUM



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I now have an addendum to my previous entry on the race for Best Actor.   As of right now, the top five will be: Daniel Day Lewis (Lincoln) to win; Joaquin Phoenix (The Master) and John Hawkes (Sessions) as Lewis’s only competition; Richard Gere (Arbitrage: career nomination); and Denzel Washington (Flight—getting incredible buzz).  
At this point, because of the Oscar voting time table now, an actor is really going to have to blow away the voters in order to get a nom; the more days go by without a movie opening that has an actor in it that is on the additional possibilities list, the less likely they will be nominated.  The only other actor with potential now, I think, is Hugh Jackman for Les Miserables, but I suspect he’s not going to make it.  He may be great in the movie, but the movie will open too late and just not excite the voters enough (and he’s too young for a career nom). 
Others that are possible are Anthony Hopkins (Hitchcock) and Billy Murray (Hyde Park on the Hudson), who have the advantage of playing real people, but the voters already have Lewis and Hawkes for that. There’s also Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook), but the more I see the previews, the less substantial the performance and part feels when it comes to the Academy and when it is held up against the other possibilities (at the same time, it’s being distributed by the Weinstein Company and never count out a Weinstein actor—though it may be Jennifer Lawrence who benefits from that association more than Cooper).   
Of course, what could happen is that once again, Gere doesn’t get his career nom and someone else gets in; his promoters had really better get to work.

OSCARS 2012


It’s getting to be that time of the year, so I’m going to start my annual blogs on the Oscars.  I know, I know.  It’s the one baited breath thing you’ve been waiting all year to hear about.  Well, you can finally stop thinking about the election and really grapple with something important now.  No need to thank me.  It’s just what I do. 

These entries will be quick and off the top of my head, so my thoughts will change as time goes on.  This entry will deal with best picture.

By now, I usually know what’s going to win top dog.  But this year, I was really stymied for a long time and even now I’m not totally sure.  I’m not certain why things are so up in the air this year.  Maybe it’s because it’s been one of the worst years for movies in the U.S. and it’s been hard for anything to really galvanize people.   But it does look like things are starting to gel. 

Argo:   The Mitt Romney of the noms.  As of right now, this is the lead to win best picture (though I think the Presidential election will come out differently).  It has all the right qualifications.  It’s perfectly middle brow, i.e., it makes the audience think it’s edgy, takes chances, is very serious, really grapples with important subject matter, when in reality, it’s a safe, above average action/thriller.  Very retro, but gets the job done.  It also is a box office hit, but not such a hit that people think it’s a studio time waster like The Avengers or The Amazing Spider-Man.  It also has some nice selling points from a marketing standpoint.  First, it’s based on a true story and a true story that most people are unaware of; and it’s a great story, one of those, if it hadn’t really happened, no one would ever believe it had (even if it didn’t really, exactly happen the way it happened in the movie).  Second, Ben Affleck’s acting career had seriously stalled, then he became a director, and is now finally getting new respect, so it’s something of a come back story.  Third, it’s topical—well, topical for a Hollywood story; it takes place in the Middle East, though as was mentioned above, it doesn’t really tell us that much or give us any serious insight into what’s going on over there.  The writer and director are having too good a time entertaining us to do something like that.

Beasts of the Southern Wild:  The Barack Obama of the noms (though, again, I personally think the election will go a different way than the Oscars).  The indie darling of the year.  It probably should win best picture, but will have to settle for a best picture, actress (the youngest ever), screenplay and maybe supporting actor and director nom.  This is the movie that does something and takes the art of filmmaking forward, unlike Argo that is very old school, very George Bush.   It has a great grass roots organization behind it; after all this time, it’s like the Energizer Bunny: it just keeps going and going and going.  It came from nowhere and worked its way up to the top on sheer quality alone.

The Master: a tough call.  The critics love it, but not many others seem to, and it’s the others that vote for the nominations.  In a year of only five noms, I would say this wouldn’t have a chance, but it’s the sort of love it or hate it that the new rules of possibly up to ten noms is made for and it may slip in.  Whether it will get a directing nod is much more difficult to say.  Should get a best actor nom no matter what (Joachim Phoenix) and possibly supporting actor and actress (Hoffman and Adams).

Les Miserables: There is a certain set of films that is impossible to make a guess on until they open.  These are movies that are so big, have such high expectations, have so much “talent” associated with them, that everyone thinks they are a sure thing until they open when most of them crash and burn.  This is especially true of musicals.  I refuse to make any sort of guess until people who have seen it (regular people, not critics) start reacting to it.  Remember Nine?  I’m not making that mistake again.

Lincoln:  See above for Les Miserables.  The previews make it look ponderous, overstuff and self-important.  But it’s Steven Spielberg, so who knows, it might also be entertaining.  It’s suppose to win a best actor for Daniel Day Lewis (beginning to look like one of the few sure things right now), and some possible supporting noms.  Expect to see it in the top ten even if it’s awful simply because it’s Spielberg.

Django Unchained:  In a year of five, probably no way, but in a year of up to ten?  Maybe.  The problem is that it’s by Tarantino.  Tarantino is one of our greatest filmmakers, but he’s a very serious filmmaker who doesn’t makes serious films.  They do nothing, but do it absolutely brilliantly.  This, I think, makes it difficult for the Academy to actually nominate him.  The exceptions were Inglorious Basterds which was about the heavy subject of WWII, Nazism and the Holocaust, and Pulp Fiction which was something people hadn’t really seen before and made people see movies in a different way (and was a film noir, which helped).  Django is basically a Spaghetti Western, so there you have it.  Also, people seem a little uneasy right now whether it’s going to work.

Silver Linings Playbook: It’s been getting a lot of good buzz, but the previews make it look incredibly formulaic and sentimental, so until it opens, it’s an unknown quantity.

Arbitrage:  Not on anybody’s radar right now, but don’t count it out.  It’s the sort of well made, unambitious, entertaining movie that wins voters over.  It’s just fun and there’s often a movie on the list that is just fun.

Moonrise Kingdom:  The, “Oh, yeah, right, I remember that movie, I loved it, but whatever happened to it” film of the year.  People have even forgotten it opened this year and it’s been overshadowed by Beasts of the Southern Wild.

Amour:  A shoe-in for awhile, but it’s also the Austrian entry in the Foreign Language Film category so that may cut against it.  I still think it might have a chance since we have up to ten movies to nom.  It’s very different from Haneke’s other films, so the voters may feel safe in voting for it.  It also may get a best actor and actress nom, as well as screenplay.

Life of Pi, Flight, Zero Dark Thirty, The Hobbit are all too unknown quantities right now.