Below is an excellent little article from movieline.com on what may be the most vulnerable of the potential best picture nominees. I agree with his analysis except that I think it’s a pretty gone conclusion, even before now, that The Last Station and The Lovely Bones weren’t going to make it. Invictus is a hard call because everybody seems to buy into the myth that Eastwood always gets a nomination when in actuality he doesn’t. The list doesn’t include Up, which is vulnerable if people decide to only nominate it in the animation category. Nine is a hard call because I suspect that when an audience sees it, they like it; the problem is that they’re having a hard time getting an audience to see it; but that’s what screeners are for. In addition, I think Weinstein is part of this and the lesson is never count Weinstein out.