Tomorrow is the big day for movie nerds as the nominations for the next Academy Awards are revealed. As usual, I will try to predict the nominees in the top eight categories. I don’t expect to do that well this year. Usually I end up with an average of one wrong in each category, but this year has become more difficult as no one seems sure as to what will make the finals. But I will do my best.
However, I do think the winners are still more or less set. Best Picture and Director should still be Spotlight; Best Actor will be Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant; Best Actress will be Brie Larson for The Room; Best Supporting Actor will be Sylvester Stallone for Creed; Best Supporting Actress will be Rooney Mara for Carol; Best original screenplay is between Ex Machina and Spotlight; and Best Adapted Screenplay will be The Martian or Steve Jobs.
What do you think?
And The Nominees Are:
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Straight Outta Compton
Todd Haynes, Carol
George Miller, Mad Max
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant
Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
(If not Haynes, then Adam McKay for The Big Short)
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Lily Tomlin, Grandma
(Alicia Vikander for The Danish Girl could replace Rampling or Tomlin)
Best Supporting Actor:
Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed
(Christian Bale for the Big Short could get in, but I don’t know who he’d replace)
Best Supporting Actress:
Jane Fonda, Youth
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
(Helen Mirren could get in, but I don’t know who’d she replace; maybe Alicia Vikander if she gets a Best Actress nom and not a Supporting one)
Best Original Screenplay:
Bridge of Spies
The Hateful Eight
Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Big Short
I think this will be my last thoughts on the Oscars this year in regard to the lack of nominations for Selma. It’s a bit longer than the others, but hopefully I’ve gotten everything out I need to say.
I remember when I first saw For Your Consideration, the latest of Christopher Guest and Eugene Levy’s satires in the vein of Best in Show and A Mighty Wind. For Your Consideration, a story about a group of people involved in an independent film who get the idea they may be headed for Oscar glory, was not, shall we say, the most praised of their series of films.
There were people who found it funny, but for me, all I could think while watching it was that for people who are inside the movie industry, I’m astounded at how little they seemed to know as to how films become front runners or even considered in any way for the Academy. Continue reading
I have, yet, an additional thought on the issue of Selma not getting more screenplay nominations. Everyone’s anger is focused on the Academy, and they have their problems and issues that need to be addressed when it comes to minorities, God knows. But the Academy, as a whole, is the one that gave the movie a best picture nomination. But Selma did not get a single PGA, DGA, WGA, or SAG nomination. So instead of focusing the anger on the Academy, shouldn’t as much or even more anger be put on the various unions and guilds? Isn’t this as much an issue, if not more, than the Academy as a whole? In fact, in some ways, isn’t the Academy being used somewhat as a scapegoat when it comes to the real problem? Just asking.
I have an addition thought to share on the non Oscar nominations for the movie Selma. I think many people are sort of missing the really important issue that this situation demonstrates. No one seems to be mentioning that this year, to get diversity into the Oscars, it all depended on one film and one film only. No other films with black actors or subject matter that revolved around people of color were in any way close to being considered for possible inclusion here. Selma didn’t get nominations for a number of reasons, not just because it was niche subject matter and made by artists of color (other reasons include the lackluster campaign and the not getting out screeners and opening late, etc.). But there is also a lack of diversity in the Oscars this year because we are dependent on getting diversity only through one or two films a year. The problem isn’t necessarily that Selma didn’t get the nominations, but that there was only one Selma this year and until we have a larger number of “Selmas” in a year, we may never ultimately resolve the diversity issue in film and awards.