<!–[if !mso]>st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } <![endif]–>
Month: October 2012
ANALYSIS OF THE 2012 BEST ACTOR OSCAR RACE
NEW YORK TIMES ARTICLE ON THE FUTURE OF MOVIES
This is an interesting article, but it misses one of the major points–it doesn’t matter what the movies do to attract an audience–as long as ticket prices are so high and keep getting higher and movie theaters like Arclight and Sundance open and make going to movies something special to do rather than something everybody does on a regular basis, the industry will put itself out of business or become like Opera, poetry and theater, an elite form of entertainment. And you can’t save an industry by telling people they should do something–that’s like trying to get kids to eat their broccoli because it’s good for them.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/29/movies/hollywood-seeks-to-slow-cultural-shift-to-tv.html?smid=fb-share
OSCARS 2012
As an addendum to my best picture race analysis for the Oscars, I called Argo the Mitt Romney film and Beats of the Southern Wild the Barack Obama film. But I realized after thinking if over more, that this is true only aesthetically. Ironically, from a thematic standpoint, it’s the reverse.
Beasts of the Southern Wild is about a group of fiercely independent people who celebrate constantly in a very patriotic manner and who want absolutely nothing to do with the government or receive help from any outside group—the perfect Romney demographic. Meanwhile, Argo is about a group of people who want to avoid using violence and sending in troops to solve an issue in the Middle East, rather using a consensus building approach by joining forces with another country (here Canada) and solving the problem in a more subtle way, which makes it more the Obama picture.
OSCARS 2012
It’s getting to be that time of the year, so I’m going to start my annual blogs on the Oscars. I know, I know. It’s the one baited breath thing you’ve been waiting all year to hear about. Well, you can finally stop thinking about the election and really grapple with something important now. No need to thank me. It’s just what I do.
These entries will be quick and off the top of my head, so my thoughts will change as time goes on. This entry will deal with best picture.
By now, I usually know what’s going to win top dog. But this year, I was really stymied for a long time and even now I’m not totally sure. I’m not certain why things are so up in the air this year. Maybe it’s because it’s been one of the worst years for movies in the U.S. and it’s been hard for anything to really galvanize people. But it does look like things are starting to gel.
Argo: The Mitt Romney of the noms. As of right now, this is the lead to win best picture (though I think the Presidential election will come out differently). It has all the right qualifications. It’s perfectly middle brow, i.e., it makes the audience think it’s edgy, takes chances, is very serious, really grapples with important subject matter, when in reality, it’s a safe, above average action/thriller. Very retro, but gets the job done. It also is a box office hit, but not such a hit that people think it’s a studio time waster like The Avengers or The Amazing Spider-Man. It also has some nice selling points from a marketing standpoint. First, it’s based on a true story and a true story that most people are unaware of; and it’s a great story, one of those, if it hadn’t really happened, no one would ever believe it had (even if it didn’t really, exactly happen the way it happened in the movie). Second, Ben Affleck’s acting career had seriously stalled, then he became a director, and is now finally getting new respect, so it’s something of a come back story. Third, it’s topical—well, topical for a Hollywood story; it takes place in the Middle East, though as was mentioned above, it doesn’t really tell us that much or give us any serious insight into what’s going on over there. The writer and director are having too good a time entertaining us to do something like that.
Beasts of the Southern Wild: The Barack Obama of the noms (though, again, I personally think the election will go a different way than the Oscars). The indie darling of the year. It probably should win best picture, but will have to settle for a best picture, actress (the youngest ever), screenplay and maybe supporting actor and director nom. This is the movie that does something and takes the art of filmmaking forward, unlike Argo that is very old school, very George Bush. It has a great grass roots organization behind it; after all this time, it’s like the Energizer Bunny: it just keeps going and going and going. It came from nowhere and worked its way up to the top on sheer quality alone.
The Master: a tough call. The critics love it, but not many others seem to, and it’s the others that vote for the nominations. In a year of only five noms, I would say this wouldn’t have a chance, but it’s the sort of love it or hate it that the new rules of possibly up to ten noms is made for and it may slip in. Whether it will get a directing nod is much more difficult to say. Should get a best actor nom no matter what (Joachim Phoenix) and possibly supporting actor and actress (Hoffman and Adams).
Les Miserables: There is a certain set of films that is impossible to make a guess on until they open. These are movies that are so big, have such high expectations, have so much “talent” associated with them, that everyone thinks they are a sure thing until they open when most of them crash and burn. This is especially true of musicals. I refuse to make any sort of guess until people who have seen it (regular people, not critics) start reacting to it. Remember Nine? I’m not making that mistake again.
Lincoln: See above for Les Miserables. The previews make it look ponderous, overstuff and self-important. But it’s Steven Spielberg, so who knows, it might also be entertaining. It’s suppose to win a best actor for Daniel Day Lewis (beginning to look like one of the few sure things right now), and some possible supporting noms. Expect to see it in the top ten even if it’s awful simply because it’s Spielberg.
Django Unchained: In a year of five, probably no way, but in a year of up to ten? Maybe. The problem is that it’s by Tarantino. Tarantino is one of our greatest filmmakers, but he’s a very serious filmmaker who doesn’t makes serious films. They do nothing, but do it absolutely brilliantly. This, I think, makes it difficult for the Academy to actually nominate him. The exceptions were Inglorious Basterds which was about the heavy subject of WWII, Nazism and the Holocaust, and Pulp Fiction which was something people hadn’t really seen before and made people see movies in a different way (and was a film noir, which helped). Django is basically a Spaghetti Western, so there you have it. Also, people seem a little uneasy right now whether it’s going to work.
Silver Linings Playbook: It’s been getting a lot of good buzz, but the previews make it look incredibly formulaic and sentimental, so until it opens, it’s an unknown quantity.
Arbitrage: Not on anybody’s radar right now, but don’t count it out. It’s the sort of well made, unambitious, entertaining movie that wins voters over. It’s just fun and there’s often a movie on the list that is just fun.
Moonrise Kingdom: The, “Oh, yeah, right, I remember that movie, I loved it, but whatever happened to it” film of the year. People have even forgotten it opened this year and it’s been overshadowed by Beasts of the Southern Wild.
Amour: A shoe-in for awhile, but it’s also the Austrian entry in the Foreign Language Film category so that may cut against it. I still think it might have a chance since we have up to ten movies to nom. It’s very different from Haneke’s other films, so the voters may feel safe in voting for it. It also may get a best actor and actress nom, as well as screenplay.
Life of Pi, Flight, Zero Dark Thirty, The Hobbit are all too unknown quantities right now.
FRANKENWEENIE, THE PAPERBOY, SISTER
<!–[if !mso]>st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } <![endif]–>
THE PERKS OF BEING A WALLFLOWER
THE WOMAN IN BLACK
<!–[if !mso]>st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } <![endif]–>
ARGO and SEVEN PSYCHOPATHS
<!–[if !mso]>st1\:*{behavior:url(#ieooui) } <![endif]–>